Well, then. It’s time for the election.
This week, I’m thinking a lot about how we’re all feeling, as individuals and as a community, and how that might affect the results we’ll hear on Monday. We stand at a crossroads and our next turn is unclear. Great confusion surrounds this election: the issues; the arguments; the individuals; the eventual outcome. Nobody seems to know what will happen next. I certainly don’t, so please stop asking me, everybody, unless it’s for money, and in that case I still won’t know but will feel a lot happier about it.
But I do have some thoughts to share.
Let’s do that now.
Hang on, first, the housekeeping
I should establish what I’m up to.
Hello - my name is Mike and, in my spare time this year, I’ve been writing about local government for some kind of local entity that has developed into The Loon. Welcome aboard, you dashingly-attractive new subscribers, and thanks for your clicks and eyeballs. This is City Hall Notes, your Wednesday guide to the running of our city. And, if there is an air of completion here, it’s because it’s my last one before London elects a mayor, councillors and school board trustees on Monday, October 26. We’re poised for the sound of the other shoe dropping. This is it.
I could approach this task in a number of ways, and - as long-term subscribers have been able to see - I’ve developed my approach over the last 10 months. Usually, I’ll stay informational and share summaries and links, all designed to support good thinking over time. This is more of an acute issue, however, and I am very much aware we’ve had hundreds of new readers arrive recently. (Our thanks go to Rogers tv, CBC London, AM980, and so many others for the partnerships and media appearances that are spreading the word.) So, I’ve written a more reflective piece, even as we look ahead.
I hope you find this useful, and readable, as you ponder important decisions in your future. That’s the idea: we share reliable information and combat misinformation and disinformation in our community. It’s all about clarity and, boy, do we need some of that right now.
Let’s begin.
Here we go with three front-of-mind thoughts with five days to go. Take ’em or leave ’em, and my thanks for reading.
1. Change is about to take place - the question is: how much?
It’s unmissable in this heated political contest: everyone is promising change. I know they all have to keep those promises (yes, let’s keep an eye on that) but I haven’t heard a single voice say “London should stay the same”. Notably, even incumbents are saying “things must improve” and, to some extent, getting quizzical looks for it. Try this CTV London report about construction, for example:
Morgan pitches shifting roadwork into high gear, Stevenson asks what took so long
That’s Daryl Newcombe, of course, doing his usual excellent work. He sums up the Morgan re-election pledges as:
24-hour road construction - just not near homes
Changed procurement policies to help local businesses compete
Strict fines on late construction projects, and rewards for early finishes
Better communication about construction
And, we might add “What took so long?” to a number of election pledges, including those by Councillor Susan Stevenson, who has just spent four years as a member of council, if an iconoclastic one. That story also includes incumbent councillors Shawn Lewis (Ward 2) and Peter Cuddy (Ward 3) standing with Morgan to promise change. All their opponents (Lewis has three and Cuddy has five) are also promising change. Do you see what I mean?
And construction is just one issue. We can expect change in homelessness services, too, with either an increase in services (Morgan, for example, has pledged 200 more supportive housing spaces) or more disruptive change (Stevenson promises a review and a plan to more support from the Province) and of course all the other mayoral candidates are making their own pledges (Kirsten Krose has a 10-year plan, for example, and Bronagh Morgan has a plan to review services, and so on).
At the same time, everyone - and I mean everyone - is hitting us with some variation on “clean up City Hall” and bring more efficiency, and so on. Incumbents talk that way all through the term and then everybody else joins in at the end, like a big choir. It’s a wave of change, to some extent, and somehow things also do not change in many ways. That’s politics.
My point is: nobody’s voting for the status quo here. We are at a crucial time in our city’s history, with massive economic and social challenges, and we are choosing our leaders. This election is all about how much change we want, what that change will bring, and - crucially - how much disruption to public services we can tolerate to make the change happen.
Worth thinking about, when making a choice.
2. The next mayor will seek allies and that will influence policy
This has been a stormy election, as we all keep saying. Don’t get me wrong - I know elections are often noisy bouts (and I have a great “after six beers” story about a British by-election) but this has been a contest that’s highlighted significant divisions in our city, especially when we discuss homelessness and the connected-but-separate issue of drug use, crime and general mess on the streets. People have opinions and it has often been emotional. Heated.
This may have generated the most publicity for the mayoral contest, but it’s a seething undercurrent present in every race in town. Meanwhile, localized issues such as infill housing projects and, yes, all the construction continue to influence ward races in ways that are hard to track. On Monday night, we will have the names of 14 people with whom our mayor must work, and every one of those 14 people is arriving with an agenda and their own promises of change ringing in their ears.
The mayor needs council, more than ever.
But what about those Strong Mayor Powers, I hear you cry? I’ll refer you to guest writer Paul Hubert’s excellent thoughts on that matter from the weekend, and his discussion with Matt Brown on Monday.
Paul says: “Strong mayor powers should be used sparingly, as a last resort.”
And, among Paul’s examples in that article, I’ll point to recent history. Back in January, I wrote about Josh Morgan’s pitch to business leaders. That was supposed to be a use of those powers, or at least some kind of agreement on housing incentives for homebuyers. Despite repeated attempts, that didn’t go through council in this form and was eventually subsumed into other efforts to stimulate the housing market. Councillors were not aligned ahead of time and basically dismantled the whole project.
More recently, challenger Susan Stevenson, when asked about Strong Mayor Powers during the Rogers tv debate (full recording here and LFP analysis here), said she’d use them to fire someone.
“I’d be willing to use the strong mayor powers to choose a city manager, and deal with any other leadership issues that needed to be addressed at the leadership level, because to get the changes that Londoners want — we’re going to need a strong team of leaders that are committed to serving Londoners and giving them what they want,” she said.
And that has caused quite a stir, especially among staff at City Hall; I saw some social media comments in which folks openly questioned the stability of their own jobs. And the outcome of all of this is: Strong Mayor Powers will always be controversial, and used “sparingly and as a last resort”, if at all. Maybe the Budget process will see them used, but they are not a replacement for a united, aligned council.
My argument? While everyone’s watching the mayoral race, they should be counting wards. A 7/7, or even 6/8 split between newbies and incumbents could have a profound effect on local services, starting immediately. We know we’ll have at least three new faces, and I see three to four wards that may change hands. (No, I’m not identifying them. That gets me the angry messages and I have to block more people.)
tl;dr: The mayor will have to build a team with whoever wins in the 14 wards, and we’re back to those calls for change. Just what kind of change will it be?
We find out next week.
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3. Turnout matters but we just don’t know how
The numbers for the advance polls are in and, with so little information available about the likely outcome of the election, everyone is taking a close, close look at them.
And it’s unclear what they say, except: more people are voting than last time.
Here is a CBC story that puts the numbers together for us simply, and I’ll summarize here:
More than 16,500 Londoners voted in advance polls from Oct. 1 to 11, up about 27 per cent from 2022. The increase follows a broader trend toward early voting, although London’s estimated eligible electorate has also grown by roughly 17% to 330,000. Advance ballots represent about 5% of eligible voters, and the increase does not necessarily signal higher overall turnout, which hit a historic low of 25.5% in 2022. City officials reported no major disruptions and will confirm final figures after election day.
Full credit here must go to Jack Moulton at the London Free Press, who produced this excellent piece about advance voting. Jack talked to political scientists about what the numbers might mean, and his piece is totally worth a read. Among other points, it includes a suggestion that this may benefit challengers over incumbents, and also a conclusion that this is less of a big deal than 2014, when the Fontana 8 were booted from council en masse.
My opinion: turnout will be crucial in ward races, and political trends in those ward races will inform the future direction of council. We have incumbents defending slim majorities and hearing tough criticism from at least some of their electorate. One poorly-handled infill development could swing it. Somebody’s going spend Tuesday wishing they’d canvassed just one… more… street…
Enough
I’m going to leave it there. Thanks for reading this far, and for reading at all these last 10 months - French-style air-kisses to anybody who’s been here that long. I feel quite flattered to see so many people clicking on my articles and to be approached to discuss these issues in the media, although less so when it happens in the street. (People keep asking me if I’m Mike Donachie and I’m fairly sure I am.) Please know I do as much of this as I can, because I hope I can make some kind of positive impact on my community.
Of course, there is so much more to do, particularly in covering the school board races, which continue to be underreported. I’ll keep sharing what I can find and round up some pre-election news on Friday.
Oh no he’s going all Jerry Springer now
My final thought: if you have a vote, please use it well. I keep thinking how we’re feeling at this notional crossroads, where it’s midnight and maybe we’ll be real good on the guitar after this, or maybe not.
The confusion is present, and it is up to us to cut through it. We can all do our part, stand up for our values, and - preferably - breathe through the emotions to make decisions thoughtfully. Please look at the promises and decide who you believe.
Thanks for being London Leaders. This is your time to step up.
One quick postscript…
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And that’s really it from me.
Choose your leaders and place your trust.
- Mike
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